Market observation
We observe BTC and ETH price movements and public data, separating information available at the time from what was still unknown.
INPUT / DATAMarket research / paper simulation
Beyond prediction
decisions we can examine.
Futaba studies rule-based signals in BTC and ETH markets. We observe the market, state our assumptions, and examine each decision through backtests and paper trading.
This introduction is public. Access to the research app is limited to approved users.
FUTABA / RESEARCH FLOWBTC · ETH
How we examine a signal
Market observationCheck the time and scope of prices and public market data.
Set the rulesDefine entry conditions and risk limits first.
Paper testingRecord outcomes with cost assumptions included.
Review the limitsSeparate simulated outcomes from real execution.
RULES → EVIDENCE → REVIEW01 / 04
01 / Project
What does Futaba study?
Futaba looks beyond an isolated signal. We examine its inputs, rules, costs, and what happened after the decision.
Rule-based signals
We define conditions and decision times before comparing candidates. We guard against changing rules after seeing the results.
RULE / DECISIONPaper-trading review
In backtests and paper accounts, we consider fees, slippage, and risk assumptions, recording the limits of interpretation alongside performance.
SIMULATION / REVIEW02 / Research areas
Different time frames ask different questions.
No single strategy explains every market condition. Futaba separates time frames and signal types, then records the assumptions and limits of each.
Direction and risk belong together.
We compare long and short candidates on four-hour historical bars. We also study how target exposure, volatility, and external risk inputs change the decision.
- Define candidate rules and comparisons first
- Test across separated historical periods
- Check sensitivity to cost and risk assumptions
Separate what happens after a signal.
For short-horizon candidates, a signal appearing is different from assuming a trade was possible. We treat risk blocks, waiting, and simulated fills as separate events, with particular attention to costs.
- Distinguish raw signals from simulated actions
- Review fees, slippage, and liquidity assumptions
- Observe whether results persist on new data
How to read resultsResults built from different periods and cost assumptions cannot be compared by returns alone. First check the inputs and rules behind each result.
03 / Method
Research that keeps the context.
The same number can mean different things depending on the data and assumptions behind it. Futaba records that context too.
01
Define the question
Set the comparison and decision criteria in advance.
02
Check the data scope
Identify the period, time standard, missing inputs, and limits of public data.
03
Include costs and risk
Examine how fees, slippage, position size, and loss limits change outcomes.
04
Keep observing new data
Separately check whether an explanation based on historical data holds at later points in time.
04 / Paper simulation
Paper trading records what follows a signal.
A promising signal tells only part of the story. We also examine why a trade was skipped, or which assumptions produced a simulated trade. Futaba reviews these steps separately.
- 01 / SIGNAL
Raw signal
Record when predefined market conditions were met and which inputs were available.
- 02 / FILTER
Risk and cost filter
Record whether a risk limit or cost condition caused a signal to be delayed or rejected.
- 03 / SIMULATION
Simulated fill
Calculate hypothetical entries and exits using proxy prices and assumptions about fees and slippage.
- 04 / REVIEW
Interpret the result
Revisit not only profit and loss, but also missing inputs, market conditions, and the effect of assumptions.
A simulated fill is not an exchange order ID, a partial fill, a cancellation, or real-account profit and loss.
05 / Scope
Simulation is different from live trading.
This is the most important context for reading Futaba's results.
How fixed rules behaved in the data
Historical replay and paper accounts let us repeat conditions and compare the consistency and risk of decisions.
Whether real orders fill at the same price and time
Simulations alone cannot establish order-queue position, liquidity, prices during rapid moves, or actual costs. This page is neither investment advice nor a promise of returns.
06 / Questions
Frequently asked questions
A few essentials for understanding the research and the protected app.
Does Futaba trade with real money automatically?
This introduction covers rule research, backtests, and paper trading. Simulated records are not real orders or real-account performance.
Do backtests guarantee future returns?
No. A rule that matched historical data may behave differently later. Results depend on the data period, how candidates were selected, fees, and slippage.
Why examine costs and risk separately?
Short-horizon signals can be highly sensitive to fees, slippage, and liquidity. Counting signals that a risk rule would have blocked can distort a performance estimate.
Can anyone access the research app?
Anyone can read this introduction. The separate Futaba research app is available only to approved users after Cloudflare email authentication.
FUTABA / SANJIVA
Turn market questions into records we can examine.
Futaba's research is ongoing.